Conservatism, in cognitive psychology, refers to the tendency to insufficiently revise one's beliefs in light of new evidence. This cognitive bias indicates that individuals tend to give more weight to prior convictions or base rates and insufficiently adjust their beliefs based on new information, leading to a slower belief updating process than what Bayes' theorem would suggest.
In a classic experiment by Ward Edwards, individuals were asked to predict the probability of drawing a predominantly red chip from one of two bags after sampling them. Most participants estimated a 70% probability for the red bag, despite the Bayes' theorem indicating it should be approximately 97% based on the evidence presented.
To overcome conservatism bias, actively seek out and consider new evidence and perspectives, challenge your existing beliefs, and be willing to adjust them based on statistically significant findings.